Will I "Really Like" this Movie?

Navigating Movie Website Ratings to Select More Enjoyable Movies

Archive for the tag “Gifted”

Musings After a Quiet Movie Weekend

There were no changes this week to the 2017 Objective Top Ten. None of the movies that opened last weekend earned a Certified Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes. So, I have nothing to talk about. Right? Oh, you are so wrong.

First, regarding that Objective Top Ten that I update every Monday, I want to be clear about something. I’m not suggesting that you will like every movie on that list. I’m not suggesting that there aren’t good movies that didn’t make the list. In fact, my two favorite movies so far, Beauty and the Beast and Gifted, aren’t on the list. It is just an objective measure of quality. It doesn’t take into account your personal taste in movies. For example, if you typically don’t like Art House movies you may not like Kedi, which is a documentary about the hundreds of thousands of cats that have been roaming Istanbul for thousands of years, or Truman, which is a Spanish language film that celebrates the enduring nature of good friendship. These low budget movies tend to take risks and aren’t intended to please the general audience. But, would you really prefer to see the new Transformers movie which opened yesterday and is 16% Rotten on Rotten Tomatoes? You may prefer to avoid all three movies and that’s okay. The point of the list is to give you a menu of quality movies and if any naturally intrigue you, the odds are that it will be a “really like” movie for you.

Turning from low budget Art House films to big budget Blockbusters, the success of two other movies on the list explain why movies based on comic books are here to stay for the foreseeable future. Logan with its estimated $97 million production budget and Wonder Woman with its estimated budget of $149 million have returned a tidy return in worldwide box office receipts of over $617 million and $578 million, respectively. When quality movies in the comic book genre are made, they spin box office gold.

A couple of other notes on the Objective Top Ten List. In July I plan to expand the list to fifteen movies and in October I’ll expand it again to twenty movies. This will better accommodate the number of quality movies that typically are released over the second half of the year. Also, I’m close to being able to incorporate Cinemascore grades into the probabilities for the Objective Top Ten. It’s possible that this change may be incorporated as early as next Monday’s update. This change will differentiate better one movie from the next.

Finally, two movies that I have my eye on for this weekend are The Beguiled ,which earned Sofia Coppola the top director award at Cannes, and The Big Sick, which is already 98% Certified Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes.

Can You Increase Your Odds of Having a “Really Like” Experience at the Movie Theater

Last Friday, my wife and I were away from home visiting two different sets of friends. One group we met for lunch. The second group we were meeting in the evening. With some time to spare between visits, we decided to go to a movie. The end of April usually has slim pickings for “really like” movies at the theater. With the help of IMDB and Rotten Tomatoes, I was able to surface a couple of prospects but only one that both my wife and I might “really like”. We ended up seeing a terrific little movie, Gifted.

My experience got me thinking about the probabilities of seeing “really like” movies at the movie theater. These movies have the least data to base a decision off of and yet I can’t recall too many movies that I’ve seen in the theater that I haven’t “really liked”. Was this reality or merely perception.

I created a subset of my database of movies that I’ve seen within 3 months of their release. Of the 1,998 movies in my database, 99 movies, or 5%, met the criteria. Of these 99 movies, I “really liked” 86% of them. For the whole database, I “really liked” 60% of the movies I’ve watched over the last 15 years. My average score for the 99 movies was 7.8 out of 10. For the remaining 1,899 movies my average score was 6.8 out of 10.

How do I explain this? My working theory is that when a movie comes with an additional cash payout, i.e. theater tickets, I become a lot more selective in what I see. But, how can I be more selective with less data? I think it’s by selecting safe movies. There are movies that I know I am going to like. When I went into the movies theater a couple of months ago to see Beauty and the Beast I knew I was going to love it and I did. Those are the types of movie selections I tend to reserve for the theater experience.

There are occasions like last Friday when a specific movie isn’t drawing me to the movies but instead I’m drawn by the movie theater experience itself. Can I improve my chances of selecting a “really like” movie in those instances?

Last week I mentioned in my article that I needed to define better what I needed my “really like” probability model to do. One of the things that it needs to do is to provide better guidance for new releases. The current model has a gap when it comes to new releases. Because the data is scarce most new releases will be Quintile 1 movies in the model. In other words, very little of the indicators based on my taste in movies, i.e. Netflix, Movielens, and Criticker, is factored into the “really like” probability.

A second gap in the model is that new releases haven’t been considered for Academy Awards yet. The model treats them as if they aren’t award worthy, even though some of them will be Oscar nominated.

I haven’t finalized a solution to these gaps but I’m experimenting with one. As a substitute for the Oscar performance factor in my model I’m considering a combined IMDB/Rotten Tomatoes probability factor. These two outputs are viable indicators of the quality of a new release. This factor would be used until the movie goes through the Oscar nomination process. At that time, it would convert to the Oscar performance factor.

I’ve created a 2017 new release list of the new movies I’m tracking. You can find it on the sidebar with my Weekly Watch List movies. This list uses the new “really like” probability approach I’m testing for new releases. Check it out.

If you plan on going to the movies this weekend to see Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, it is probably because you really liked the first one. Based on IMDB and Rotten Tomatoes, you shouldn’t be disappointed. It is Certified Fresh 86% on Rotten Tomatoes and 8.2 on IMDB.

 

 

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