Will I "Really Like" this Movie?

Navigating Movie Website Ratings to Select More Enjoyable Movies

Archive for the tag “Dunkirk”

Add a Year Here. Tweak a Formula There. And, the Objective Top Twenty Looks Very Different.

I was able to add 1998 to the Objective Database last weekend. The extra data allowed me to factor in Oscar wins to the algorithm. But, it was one little tweak to the Oscar performance factor that dramatically altered the 2017 Objective Top Twenty this week.

For the Oscar performance part of my algorithm I created five groupings of movies based on their highest Academy Award achievement. If a movie won in a major category it went in the first group. If it was nominated for a major but didn’t win, it went in the second group. If it wasn’t nominated for a major but won in a minor category, it went into the third group. If it was only nominated in a minor category but didn’t win, it went into the fourth group. Finally, if it wasn’t nominated in any Oscar category, it went into the fifth group.

In terms of what percentage of the movies in each group that had an average IMDB rating of 7 or better, here are the results:

Best Oscar Performance: %  7+ IMDB Avg. Rating
Major Win 90.3%
Major Nomination 87.7%
Minor Win 79.7%
Minor Nomination 71.7%
No Nominations 59.8%

Wins seem to matter, particularly for the minor categories. Major nominations clearly are better “really like” indicators than minor nominations. It’s the no nominations grouping that’s most revealing. If a movie doesn’t get at least one nomination, the odds of it being a “really like” movie are dramatically reduced. This led to my discovery of some faulty thinking on my part.

If movies like DunkirkLady Bird, and Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri, all movies headed towards major Oscar nominations in January, are treated in my algorithm as if they failed to earn a single Oscar nomination, those movies are being unfairly penalized. It was this flaw in my system that needed fixing. Now, those movies that haven’t gone through the Oscar nominating process are designated as Not Applicable. No Oscar performance test is applied to them. Without the weight of the No Nomination designation, many of the movies that didn’t get their first release until 2017 have risen significantly in the 2017 Objective Top Twenty rankings.

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Get ready for a Thanksgiving treat. Now that 1998 has been added to the Objective Database, we can reveal the Objective Top Seven Movies from the years 1992-1998. Adding Academy Award Wins to the mix will shake up those rankings as well. Check in next Thursday after you’ve taken your post-turkey dinner nap.

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The wide releases this weekend are Justice LeagueThe Star, and Wonder, but it’s the limited release, Mudbound, that I’ll be watching closely . This movie, set in the post-WII rural American South, is being mentioned as a Best Picture contender. Here’s the thing though. Most people won’t see it in the movie theater since it opens simultaneously on Friday on Netflix streaming. Can a movie that is more widely viewed at home than in the theater gain Academy Award traction? Stay tuned.

 

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Why Did “The Big Sick” Drop Out of the Objective Top Fifteen This Week?

This past Sunday my wife, Pam, and I went to see The Big Sick. The movie tells the story of the early relationship days of the two screenwriters, Emily Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani. In fact, Nanjiani plays himself in the movie. It is the authenticity of the story, told in a heartfelt and humorous way, that makes this film special.

On the following day, last weekend’s blockbuster, Dunkirk, moved into the second spot in the revised Objective Top Fifteen rankings. When a new movie comes on the list another one exits. This week’s exiting movie, ironically, was The Big Sick. Wait! If The Big Sick is such a great movie why isn’t it in my top fifteen for the year? Are all of the other movies on the list better movies? Maybe yes. Maybe no. You’ll have to determine that for yourselves. You see the Objective Top Fifteen is your list, not mine.

I developed the Objective Top Ten, which became Fifteen the beginning of July and will become Twenty the beginning of October, to provide you with a ranking of 2017 widely released movies that are most likely to be “really like” movies. Because the ranking is based on objective benchmarks, my taste in movies has no influence on the list. The four benchmarks presently in use are: IMDB Avg. Rating, Rotten Tomatoes Rating, Cinemascore Rating, and Academy Award Nominations and Wins. A movie like Hidden Figures that meets all four benchmarks has the greatest statistical confidence in its “really like” status and earns the highest “really like” probability. A movie that meets three benchmarks has a greater “really like” probability than a movie that meets only two benchmarks. And so on.

The important thing to note, though, is that this is not a list of the fifteen best movies of the year. It is a ranking of probabilities (with some tie breakers thrown in) that you’ll “really like” a movie. It is subject to data availability. The more positive data that’s available, the more statistical confidence, i.e. higher probability, the model has in the projection.

Which brings me back to The Big Sick. Cinemascore surveys those movies that they consider “major releases”. The Big Sick probably didn’t have a big advertising budget. Instead, the producers of the film chose to roll the movie out gradually, beginning on June 23rd, to create some buzz and momentum behind the movie before putting it into wide release on July 14th. This is probably one of the reasons why Cinemascore didn’t survey The Big Sick. But, because The Big Sick is missing that third benchmark needed to develop a higher probability, it dropped out of the Top Fifteen. On the other hand, if it had earned at least an “A-” from Cinemascore The Big Sick would be the #2 movie on the list based on the tie breakers.

And, that is the weakness, and strength of movie data. “Major releases” have it. Smaller movies like The Big Sick don’t.

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This weekend may be the end of the four week run of Objective Top Fifteen movie breakthroughs. Atomic Blonde, the Charlize Theron spy thriller, has an outside chance of earning a spot on the list. As of this morning, it is borderline for the IMDB and Rotten Tomatoes benchmarks. I’m also tracking Girls Trip which earned a Certified Fresh just in the last couple of days from Rotten Tomatoes and has an “A+” in hand from Cinemascore. For now, it is just below the IMDB benchmark. We’ll see if that changes over the weekend.

 

 

Vacation, My 100th Post, and a July “Really Like” Movie Hot Streak

I arrived in the city of Seattle yesterday in the wee hours of the morning. I’m here to introduce myself to my new, beautiful granddaughter. So if there is a contemplative, or distracted, feel to this week’s post, there is good reason.

This is also my 100th post. Not quite as momentous as your first grandchild, but a marker worthy of reflection nevertheless. It has been a labor of love and a challenge. Blogging was new to me when I started out 99 posts ago. I discovered that you don’t find your voice in the first post. Little by little though you develop a style that you become comfortable with and readers of your blog become comfortable with. If you’re lucky, enough people become engaged in your passion and come back for more. Thanks for your support if you’re one of those loyal followers, or even if you’ve just stopped by for an occasional “check and see”. On to the next 100 posts beginning with a look at what’s caught my eye at the Cineplex this coming weekend.

Dunkirk, which goes into wide release tomorrow, is poised to become the fourth high quality mega-hit in four weeks. As of this morning, it is 94% Certified Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes. And, the early overseas feedback on IMDB has produced an impressive 9.6 average rating. This Christopher Nolan depiction of the rescue of the surrounded British army at the beginning of World War II is being compared to the classic Saving Private Ryan. The Saving Private Ryan comparison benchmarks to keep an eye on are Certified Fresh 92%, IMDB Avg Rating 8.6 and Cinemascore “A”. Pre-wide release Dunkirk is exceeding the Rotten Tomatoes and IMDB scores. We’ll have to wait until Saturday for Cinemascore results. I’m excited about this one.

In addition to off schedule posts to this site, vacation for the Mad Movie Man invariably involves a trip to the movies. With an unusually high number of Certified Fresh movies at the theater it is almost a can’t miss proposition. But, the absolute can’t miss feature of this vacation is the incredible miracle of my granddaughter Addie Rose.

This Is Turning Into a “Really Like” Summer at the Movies.

In case you haven’t noticed, we are in the midst of a pretty good run of high quality movies this summer. Since the first weekend in May, which serves as the unofficial beginning of the summer movie season, there have been at least ten movies that have a 7.2 or higher IMDB average rating and have a Certified Fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes.

May to July 2017 Wide Released Movies IMDB Rating Rotten Tomatoes Rating Rotten Tomatoes % Fresh
Baby Driver 8.4 C. Fresh 97%
Spider-Man: Homecoming 8.2 C. Fresh 93%
Wonder Woman 8.0 C. Fresh 92%
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 8.1 C. Fresh 81%
Big Sick, The 8.0 C. Fresh 97%
I, Daniel Blake  7.9 C. Fresh 92%
A Ghost Story 7.5 C. Fresh 87%
Okja 7.7 C. Fresh 84%
The Beguiled  7.3 C. Fresh 77%
The Hero  7.3 C. Fresh 76%

And if early indicators are accurate, War for the Planet of the Apes will join the list after this coming weekend. And, if the early buzz on social media holds up, Christopher Nolan’s new movie Dunkirk will join the list the following weekend.

This seems to me to be an unusually high number of quality movies for the summer so far but I can’t tell you how unusual…yet. I’m working on a new long term project. I’m creating a database solely made up of objective “really like” movie indicators. It will include all movies finishing in the top 150 in receipts at the box office for each of the last 25 years. This database will provide a better representation of the bad movies that are released each year as well as provide a more robust sample size.

For now, I can only compare this year’s quality to 1992 (the first of the 25 years in my new database). Allowing for the fact that Rotten Tomatoes wasn’t launched until 1998, I’ve allowed movies that aren’t Certified Fresh but would otherwise be if there were enough critic reviews of the movie. Even with that allowance, there are only 3 movies released between May and July 1992 that meet the quality criteria I’m using for this summer.

May to July 1992 Wide Released Movies IMDB Rating Rotten Tomatoes Rating Rotten Tomatoes % Fresh
Night on Earth             7.5 Fresh 73%
Enchanted April             7.6 Fresh 83%
A League of Their Own             7.2 C. Fresh 78%

I’ll also add that the IMDB average ratings tend to decline over time. It is probable that a few of this year’s movies will ultimately not meet the 7.2 IMDB rating minimum. But, with 7 of the 10 movies sitting with IMDB ratings at 7.7 or better, this year’s list should hold up pretty well over time.

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As I mentioned above War for the Planet of the Apes opens tomorrow. It is easy to overlook how good this franchise has been. Here are the “really like” indicators for the franchise including a very early look at tomorrow’s entry.

IMDB Rating Rotten Tomatoes Rating Rotten Tomatoes % Fresh Cinema Score
Rise of the Planet of the Apes (2011)             7.6 C. Fresh 81% A-
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (2014)             7.6 C. Fresh 90% A-
War for the Planet of the Apes (2017)             9.1 C. Fresh 93% ?

Franchises tend to get tired after the first movie. From the critics’ perspective, this franchise appears to get better with each new movie. I expect to see War for the Planet of the Apes on the Objective Top Fifteen list on Monday.

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