Will I "Really Like" this Movie?

Navigating Movie Website Ratings to Select More Enjoyable Movies

Archive for the tag “Baby Driver”

What IMDB Ratings Give You the Best Chance for a “Really Like” Movie?

As I was browsing the IMDB ratings for the movies released in July, I wondered how the average user of IMDB knows what is a good rating for a movie. I’m sure the more than casual visitor to IMDB would see the 8.2 rating for Baby Driver and immediately recognize that only above average movies receive ratings that high. Or, they might see the 1.5 rating for The Emoji Movie and fully understand that this is a really bad movie. But, what about the 6.8 for Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets or the 7.2 for Atomic Blonde. They might have a number in their head as to what is the tipping point for a good and bad rating but that number could only be a guess. To really know, you’d have to compile a list of all the movies you’ve seen and compare their IMDB rating to how you’ve rated them. That would be crazy. Right? But, wait a minute. I’m that crazy! I’ve done that! Well, maybe not every movie I’ve ever seen. But, every movie I’ve seen in the last fifteen years.

So, given the fact that I’ve done what only a crazy man would do, what can I tell you about what is a good IMDB rating. Here’s my breakdown:

IMDB Avg. Rating # I Really Liked # I Didn’t Really Like Really Like %
> 8.2 108 43 71.5%
7.2 to 8.1 732 427 63.2%
6.2 to 7.1 303 328 48.0%
< 6.2 6 71 7.8%
> 7.2 840 470 64.1%
< 7.2 309 399 43.6%
All 1149 869 56.9%

The data suggests that IMDB ratings of 7.2 or higher give me the best chance of choosing a “really like” movie.

I mentioned a few posts ago that my new long range project is to develop a database that is totally objective, free from the biases of my movie tastes. I’m compiling data for the top 150 movies in box office receipts for the last 25 years. It’s a time-consuming project that should produce a more robust sample for analysis. One of my concerns has been that the database of movies that I’ve seen doesn’t have a representative sample of bad movies. While it’s a long way from completion, I have completed years 1992 and 1993 which are representative enough to make my point.

IMDB Avg. Rating % of All Movies in Objective Database (Years 1992 & 1993) % of All Movies in My Seen Movie Database
> 8.2 1% 7%
7.2 to 8.1 23% 57%
6.2 to 7.1 35% 31%
< 6.2 41% 4%

Over the last six or seven years in particular, I have made a concerted effort to avoid watching bad movies. You can see this in the data. If 7.2 is the “really like” benchmark, then only 24% of the top 150 movies at the box office are typically “really like” movies. On the other hand, my selective database has generated 64% “really like” movies over the past 15 years. This is a big difference.

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While no new movies broke into the Objective Top Fifteen this week, Megan Leavy, which was released around eight weeks ago, slipped into the list. This under-the-radar movie didn’t have enough critics’ reviews to be Certified Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes until recently.

As for this weekend, The Dark Tower could be a disappointment to everyone but the most die-hard of Stephen King fans. Instead, I’m keeping an eye on Detroit. This urban drama, directed by Kathryn Bigelow, captures the chaos of Detroit in 1967. It probably will be surveyed by Cinemascore.

A third movie, that probably won’t be surveyed by Cinemascore but I’m watching nevertheless, is Wind River. Taylor Sheridan, who wrote the acclaimed movies Hell or High Water and Sicario, wrote this movie. Sheridan is a great young talent who is stepping behind the camera in his directorial debut as well.

 

 

 

 

What Was The “Really Like” Movie of 2016? The Result May Surprise You.

According to Box Office Mojo, the website that tracks all things related to movie box office results, Baby Driver was last weekend’s big surprise at the box office. It also debuted in the number two spot on the 2017 Objective Top Fifteen posted on this site on Monday. What exactly does that mean? Not much yet. Think of it as the score in a game that is almost half over where most of the scoring occurs near the end of the game. The final result won’t crystalize until the Academy Award winners are announced next February. Also, keep in mind that most of the major Oscar contenders won’t be released until late in the year.

To give you some idea of what a final score does look like, here is the 2016 Objective Top Ten:

Top Ten 2016 Movies Based on Objective Criteria
As Of 7/7/2017
2016 Released Movies Oscar Noms/ Wins IMDB Rating Rotten Tomatoes Rating Rotten Tomatoes % Fresh Cinema Score Objective “Really Like” Probability
Hacksaw Ridge 6/2 8.2 C. Fresh 87% A 65.9%
La La Land 14/6 8.2 C. Fresh 92% 65.7%
Big Short, The 5/1 7.8 C. Fresh 88% A- 65.4%
Moonlight 8/3 7.5 C. Fresh 98% 65.1%
Fences 4/1 7.3 C. Fresh 93% A- 65.0%
Rogue One 2/0 7.9 C. Fresh 85% A 64.7%
Deepwater Horizon 2/0 7.2 C. Fresh 84% A- 64.7%
Jungle Book, The 1/1 7.5 C. Fresh 95% A 64.6%
Sully 1/0 7.5 C. Fresh 85% A 64.6%
Revenant, The 12/3 8.0 C. Fresh 81% B+ 64.6%

Just to clarify, eligibility for the list is based on when a movie goes into wide release. This pits Oscar contenders from 2015, like The Big Short and The Revenant, that were widely released in early 2016 against Oscar contenders from 2016, like Moonlight and La La Land, that were widely released late in 2016.

Are you surprised that Hacksaw Ridge is the 2016 “Really Like” Movie of the Year? The response of movie watchers is what separates this movie from the others,. That, and the fact that Cinemascore for some reason didn’t survey La La Land. I will say this though. I have talked to people who didn’t like Moonlight. I have also talked to people who felt that La La Land was over-hyped. But, I haven’t talked to a single person who hasn’t “really liked” Hacksaw Ridge.

This ranking approach intersects a number of different movie viewing perspectives. Movie critics are represented in Rotten Tomatoes. People who go to the movie theaters on opening weekend and provide feedback before movie word of mouth has influenced their opinion are represented by Cinemascore. People who watch movies on a variety of platforms are represented by IMDB. And, finally, the people who understand how difficult it is to create movies, the artists themselves, are represented by their Academy Award performance. All of them are statistically significant indicators of whether you will “really like” a movie or not.

All of you won’t like every movie on this list. While there is around a 65% chance you will “really like” these movies, there is also around a 35% chance that you won’t. All I’m saying is that there is better chance that you will “really like” one of these movies rather than the latest installment in the Transformers or Pirates of the Caribbean franchises.

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While my last paragraph may sound as if I have a reflexive aversion to movies that are part of a franchise, that couldn’t be further from the truth. Whether it’s part of a franchise or not, well made movies with fresh perspectives are worth the time of movie-lovers. The big movie opening this weekend is the second reboot of the Spider-Man franchise, Spider-Man: Homecoming and I’m really looking forward to it. The early indicators from Rotten Tomatoes and IMDB are all positive. Keep an eye on this one.

Cinemascore Is a “Really Like” Indicator

Those of  you who checked in on Monday to see the updated Objective Top Ten may have noticed that Cinemascore grades were included in the information provided for each movie. If you were particularly observant, you might have also noticed that the bar at the top of the page, which includes links to the movie ratings websites I use, now includes the link to Cinemascore. All of which means that Cinemascore grades are now officially included in the “really like” algorithm.

As I’ve mentioned before, the folks at Cinemascore have been surveying moviegoers as they leave the theater since 1978. They limit their surveys to the three or four movies each week that they suspect will do the best at the box office. This limited sample of movies represents around 40% of the movies in my database, which is a plenty big enough sample for me to work with.

The other factor in using the data is that the grades seem to line up with their “really like” potential.

Cinemascore Database Results
Grade Database Total Graded “Really Like” %
A+ 51 82%
A 201 80%
A- 212 73%
B+ 156 58%
B 117 50%
B- 52 42%
C+ 21 33%
C 9 11%
C- 4 0%
D+ 1 0%
D 0 0%
D- 1 0%

The “really like” percentages follow a logical progression by grade. Now, because the sample sizes for each grade are relatively small, I’ve had to group the grades into two buckets that represent above average Cinemascore grades and below average grades.

All Grades               825 65%
A+,A, A-               464 77%
All Other               361 50%

This suggests that a good Cinemascore grade is an A- or better (Talk about grade inflation!!). The statistical gap between the two buckets is great enough for it to be an effective differentiator of “really like” movies.

The practical effect of this change is that the Objective Top Ten will be more weighted to mainstream movies. Independent movies are less likely to be surveyed by Cinemascore for example. On the other hand, a movie like Hidden Figures, which already benefitted from high IMDB and Rotten Tomatoes scores, now adds a Cinemascore grade of A+. This makes the model even more confident that this movie is a “really like” movie and as a result the probability % for the movie goes higher, lifting it to the top of the list.

I’m excited about this enhancement and I hope you will be too.

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I mentioned last week that I had my eye on two movies, The Beguiled and The Big Sick. I jumped the gun a little bit because both of these movies only went into limited release last Friday. The Beguiled goes into wide release tomorrow, while The Big Sick goes into wide release on July 14th. Baby Driver, which went into wide release yesterday, is another new movie that looks good from the early indicators.

Next Monday the Objective Top Ten will become the Objective Top Fifteen (just in case you needed something else to look forward to this weekend). Have a “Really Like” 4th of July weekend at the movies!

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