Will I "Really Like" this Movie?

Navigating Movie Website Ratings to Select More Enjoyable Movies

Archive for the month “July, 2017”

Why Did “The Big Sick” Drop Out of the Objective Top Fifteen This Week?

This past Sunday my wife, Pam, and I went to see The Big Sick. The movie tells the story of the early relationship days of the two screenwriters, Emily Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani. In fact, Nanjiani plays himself in the movie. It is the authenticity of the story, told in a heartfelt and humorous way, that makes this film special.

On the following day, last weekend’s blockbuster, Dunkirk, moved into the second spot in the revised Objective Top Fifteen rankings. When a new movie comes on the list another one exits. This week’s exiting movie, ironically, was The Big Sick. Wait! If The Big Sick is such a great movie why isn’t it in my top fifteen for the year? Are all of the other movies on the list better movies? Maybe yes. Maybe no. You’ll have to determine that for yourselves. You see the Objective Top Fifteen is your list, not mine.

I developed the Objective Top Ten, which became Fifteen the beginning of July and will become Twenty the beginning of October, to provide you with a ranking of 2017 widely released movies that are most likely to be “really like” movies. Because the ranking is based on objective benchmarks, my taste in movies has no influence on the list. The four benchmarks presently in use are: IMDB Avg. Rating, Rotten Tomatoes Rating, Cinemascore Rating, and Academy Award Nominations and Wins. A movie like Hidden Figures that meets all four benchmarks has the greatest statistical confidence in its “really like” status and earns the highest “really like” probability. A movie that meets three benchmarks has a greater “really like” probability than a movie that meets only two benchmarks. And so on.

The important thing to note, though, is that this is not a list of the fifteen best movies of the year. It is a ranking of probabilities (with some tie breakers thrown in) that you’ll “really like” a movie. It is subject to data availability. The more positive data that’s available, the more statistical confidence, i.e. higher probability, the model has in the projection.

Which brings me back to The Big Sick. Cinemascore surveys those movies that they consider “major releases”. The Big Sick probably didn’t have a big advertising budget. Instead, the producers of the film chose to roll the movie out gradually, beginning on June 23rd, to create some buzz and momentum behind the movie before putting it into wide release on July 14th. This is probably one of the reasons why Cinemascore didn’t survey The Big Sick. But, because The Big Sick is missing that third benchmark needed to develop a higher probability, it dropped out of the Top Fifteen. On the other hand, if it had earned at least an “A-” from Cinemascore The Big Sick would be the #2 movie on the list based on the tie breakers.

And, that is the weakness, and strength of movie data. “Major releases” have it. Smaller movies like The Big Sick don’t.

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This weekend may be the end of the four week run of Objective Top Fifteen movie breakthroughs. Atomic Blonde, the Charlize Theron spy thriller, has an outside chance of earning a spot on the list. As of this morning, it is borderline for the IMDB and Rotten Tomatoes benchmarks. I’m also tracking Girls Trip which earned a Certified Fresh just in the last couple of days from Rotten Tomatoes and has an “A+” in hand from Cinemascore. For now, it is just below the IMDB benchmark. We’ll see if that changes over the weekend.

 

 

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Vacation, My 100th Post, and a July “Really Like” Movie Hot Streak

I arrived in the city of Seattle yesterday in the wee hours of the morning. I’m here to introduce myself to my new, beautiful granddaughter. So if there is a contemplative, or distracted, feel to this week’s post, there is good reason.

This is also my 100th post. Not quite as momentous as your first grandchild, but a marker worthy of reflection nevertheless. It has been a labor of love and a challenge. Blogging was new to me when I started out 99 posts ago. I discovered that you don’t find your voice in the first post. Little by little though you develop a style that you become comfortable with and readers of your blog become comfortable with. If you’re lucky, enough people become engaged in your passion and come back for more. Thanks for your support if you’re one of those loyal followers, or even if you’ve just stopped by for an occasional “check and see”. On to the next 100 posts beginning with a look at what’s caught my eye at the Cineplex this coming weekend.

Dunkirk, which goes into wide release tomorrow, is poised to become the fourth high quality mega-hit in four weeks. As of this morning, it is 94% Certified Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes. And, the early overseas feedback on IMDB has produced an impressive 9.6 average rating. This Christopher Nolan depiction of the rescue of the surrounded British army at the beginning of World War II is being compared to the classic Saving Private Ryan. The Saving Private Ryan comparison benchmarks to keep an eye on are Certified Fresh 92%, IMDB Avg Rating 8.6 and Cinemascore “A”. Pre-wide release Dunkirk is exceeding the Rotten Tomatoes and IMDB scores. We’ll have to wait until Saturday for Cinemascore results. I’m excited about this one.

In addition to off schedule posts to this site, vacation for the Mad Movie Man invariably involves a trip to the movies. With an unusually high number of Certified Fresh movies at the theater it is almost a can’t miss proposition. But, the absolute can’t miss feature of this vacation is the incredible miracle of my granddaughter Addie Rose.

This Is Turning Into a “Really Like” Summer at the Movies.

In case you haven’t noticed, we are in the midst of a pretty good run of high quality movies this summer. Since the first weekend in May, which serves as the unofficial beginning of the summer movie season, there have been at least ten movies that have a 7.2 or higher IMDB average rating and have a Certified Fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes.

May to July 2017 Wide Released Movies IMDB Rating Rotten Tomatoes Rating Rotten Tomatoes % Fresh
Baby Driver 8.4 C. Fresh 97%
Spider-Man: Homecoming 8.2 C. Fresh 93%
Wonder Woman 8.0 C. Fresh 92%
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 8.1 C. Fresh 81%
Big Sick, The 8.0 C. Fresh 97%
I, Daniel Blake  7.9 C. Fresh 92%
A Ghost Story 7.5 C. Fresh 87%
Okja 7.7 C. Fresh 84%
The Beguiled  7.3 C. Fresh 77%
The Hero  7.3 C. Fresh 76%

And if early indicators are accurate, War for the Planet of the Apes will join the list after this coming weekend. And, if the early buzz on social media holds up, Christopher Nolan’s new movie Dunkirk will join the list the following weekend.

This seems to me to be an unusually high number of quality movies for the summer so far but I can’t tell you how unusual…yet. I’m working on a new long term project. I’m creating a database solely made up of objective “really like” movie indicators. It will include all movies finishing in the top 150 in receipts at the box office for each of the last 25 years. This database will provide a better representation of the bad movies that are released each year as well as provide a more robust sample size.

For now, I can only compare this year’s quality to 1992 (the first of the 25 years in my new database). Allowing for the fact that Rotten Tomatoes wasn’t launched until 1998, I’ve allowed movies that aren’t Certified Fresh but would otherwise be if there were enough critic reviews of the movie. Even with that allowance, there are only 3 movies released between May and July 1992 that meet the quality criteria I’m using for this summer.

May to July 1992 Wide Released Movies IMDB Rating Rotten Tomatoes Rating Rotten Tomatoes % Fresh
Night on Earth             7.5 Fresh 73%
Enchanted April             7.6 Fresh 83%
A League of Their Own             7.2 C. Fresh 78%

I’ll also add that the IMDB average ratings tend to decline over time. It is probable that a few of this year’s movies will ultimately not meet the 7.2 IMDB rating minimum. But, with 7 of the 10 movies sitting with IMDB ratings at 7.7 or better, this year’s list should hold up pretty well over time.

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As I mentioned above War for the Planet of the Apes opens tomorrow. It is easy to overlook how good this franchise has been. Here are the “really like” indicators for the franchise including a very early look at tomorrow’s entry.

IMDB Rating Rotten Tomatoes Rating Rotten Tomatoes % Fresh Cinema Score
Rise of the Planet of the Apes (2011)             7.6 C. Fresh 81% A-
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (2014)             7.6 C. Fresh 90% A-
War for the Planet of the Apes (2017)             9.1 C. Fresh 93% ?

Franchises tend to get tired after the first movie. From the critics’ perspective, this franchise appears to get better with each new movie. I expect to see War for the Planet of the Apes on the Objective Top Fifteen list on Monday.

What Was The “Really Like” Movie of 2016? The Result May Surprise You.

According to Box Office Mojo, the website that tracks all things related to movie box office results, Baby Driver was last weekend’s big surprise at the box office. It also debuted in the number two spot on the 2017 Objective Top Fifteen posted on this site on Monday. What exactly does that mean? Not much yet. Think of it as the score in a game that is almost half over where most of the scoring occurs near the end of the game. The final result won’t crystalize until the Academy Award winners are announced next February. Also, keep in mind that most of the major Oscar contenders won’t be released until late in the year.

To give you some idea of what a final score does look like, here is the 2016 Objective Top Ten:

Top Ten 2016 Movies Based on Objective Criteria
As Of 7/7/2017
2016 Released Movies Oscar Noms/ Wins IMDB Rating Rotten Tomatoes Rating Rotten Tomatoes % Fresh Cinema Score Objective “Really Like” Probability
Hacksaw Ridge 6/2 8.2 C. Fresh 87% A 65.9%
La La Land 14/6 8.2 C. Fresh 92% 65.7%
Big Short, The 5/1 7.8 C. Fresh 88% A- 65.4%
Moonlight 8/3 7.5 C. Fresh 98% 65.1%
Fences 4/1 7.3 C. Fresh 93% A- 65.0%
Rogue One 2/0 7.9 C. Fresh 85% A 64.7%
Deepwater Horizon 2/0 7.2 C. Fresh 84% A- 64.7%
Jungle Book, The 1/1 7.5 C. Fresh 95% A 64.6%
Sully 1/0 7.5 C. Fresh 85% A 64.6%
Revenant, The 12/3 8.0 C. Fresh 81% B+ 64.6%

Just to clarify, eligibility for the list is based on when a movie goes into wide release. This pits Oscar contenders from 2015, like The Big Short and The Revenant, that were widely released in early 2016 against Oscar contenders from 2016, like Moonlight and La La Land, that were widely released late in 2016.

Are you surprised that Hacksaw Ridge is the 2016 “Really Like” Movie of the Year? The response of movie watchers is what separates this movie from the others,. That, and the fact that Cinemascore for some reason didn’t survey La La Land. I will say this though. I have talked to people who didn’t like Moonlight. I have also talked to people who felt that La La Land was over-hyped. But, I haven’t talked to a single person who hasn’t “really liked” Hacksaw Ridge.

This ranking approach intersects a number of different movie viewing perspectives. Movie critics are represented in Rotten Tomatoes. People who go to the movie theaters on opening weekend and provide feedback before movie word of mouth has influenced their opinion are represented by Cinemascore. People who watch movies on a variety of platforms are represented by IMDB. And, finally, the people who understand how difficult it is to create movies, the artists themselves, are represented by their Academy Award performance. All of them are statistically significant indicators of whether you will “really like” a movie or not.

All of you won’t like every movie on this list. While there is around a 65% chance you will “really like” these movies, there is also around a 35% chance that you won’t. All I’m saying is that there is better chance that you will “really like” one of these movies rather than the latest installment in the Transformers or Pirates of the Caribbean franchises.

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While my last paragraph may sound as if I have a reflexive aversion to movies that are part of a franchise, that couldn’t be further from the truth. Whether it’s part of a franchise or not, well made movies with fresh perspectives are worth the time of movie-lovers. The big movie opening this weekend is the second reboot of the Spider-Man franchise, Spider-Man: Homecoming and I’m really looking forward to it. The early indicators from Rotten Tomatoes and IMDB are all positive. Keep an eye on this one.

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