Will I "Really Like" this Movie?

Navigating Movie Website Ratings to Select More Enjoyable Movies

The Art of Selecting “Really Like” Movies: Oscar Provides a Helping Hand

Sunday is Oscar night!! From my perspective, the night is a little bittersweet. The movies that have been nominated offer up “really like” prospects to watch in the coming months. That’s a good thing. Oscar night, though, also signals the end of the best time of the year for new releases. Between now and November, there won’t be much more than a handful of new Oscar worthy movies released to the public. That’s a bad thing. There is only a 35.8% chance I will “really like” a movie that doesn’t earn a single Academy Award nomination. On the other hand, a single minor nomination increases the “really like” probability to 56%. If a movie wins one of the major awards (Best Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Screenplay), the probability increases to 69.7%.

At the end of last week’s post, I expressed a desire to come up with a “really like” movie indicator that was independent of the website data driven indicators. The statistical significance of Academy Award performance would seem to provide the perfect solution. All movies released over the past 90 years have been considered for Oscar nominations. A movie released in 1936 has statistical equivalence to a movie released in 2016 in terms of Academy Award performance.

By using the Total # of Ratings Quintiles introduced last week credibility weights can be assigned to each Quintile to allocate website data driven probabilities and Oscar performance  probabilities. These ten movies, seen more than 15 years ago, illustrates how the allocation works.

My Top Ten Seen Before Movie Prospects 
Not Seen in Last 15 Years
Movie Title Total Ratings Quintile Website Driven Probability Oscar Driven Probability Net  “Really Like” Probability
Deer Hunter, The 4 97.1% 73.8% 88.5%
Color Purple, The 4 97.9% 69.3% 87.4%
Born on the Fourth of July 4 94.0% 73.8% 86.6%
Out of Africa 4 94.0% 73.8% 86.6%
My Left Foot 3 94.0% 73.8% 83.9%
Coal Miner’s Daughter 3 97.9% 69.3% 83.6%
Love Story 3 92.7% 72.4% 82.6%
Fight Club 5 94.0% 55.4% 81.9%
Tender Mercies 2 94.0% 73.8% 81.2%
Shine 3 88.2% 73.8% 81.0%

The high degree of credible website data in Quintiles 4 & 5 weights the Net Probability closer to the Website driven probability. The Quintile 3 movies are weighted 50/50 and the resulting Net Probability ends up at the midpoint between the Data Driven probability and the Oscar driven probability. The movie in Quintile 2, Tender Mercies, which has a less credible probability from the website driven result, tilts closer to the Oscar driven probability.

The concern I raised last week about the “really like” viability of older movies I’ve never seen before goes away with this change. Take a look at my revised older movie top ten now.

My Top Ten Never Seen Movie Prospects 
Never Seen Movies =  > Release Date + 6 Months
Movie Title Last Data Update Release Date Total # of Ratings “Really Like” Probability
Movie Title Total Ratings Quintile Website Driven Probability Oscar Driven Probability Net  “Really Like” Probability
Yearling, The 1 42.1% 73.8% 71.4%
More the Merrier, The 1 26.9% 73.8% 70.2%
12 Angry Men (1997) 1 42.1% 69.3% 67.2%
Lili 1 26.9% 69.3% 66.0%
Sleuth 1 42.1% 66.8% 64.9%
Of Mice and Men (1939) 1 42.1% 66.8% 64.9%
In a Better World 1 41.5% 66.8% 64.9%
Thousand Clowns, A 1 11.8% 69.3% 64.9%
Detective Story 1 11.8% 69.3% 64.9%
Body and Soul 1 11.8% 69.3% 64.9%

Strong Oscar performing movies that I’ve never seen before become viable prospects. Note that all of these movies are Quintile 1 movies. Because of their age and lack of interest from today’s movie website visitors, these movies would never achieve enough credible ratings data to become recommended movies.

There is now an ample supply of viable, Oscar-worthy, “really like” prospects to hold me over until next year’s Oscar season. Enjoy your Oscar night in La La Land.

 

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One thought on “The Art of Selecting “Really Like” Movies: Oscar Provides a Helping Hand

  1. Pingback: Playing Tag with Movielens, Redux | Will I "Really Like" this Movie?

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