After the First Weekend, Think Small For August “Really Like” Movies
Easily the most anticipated movie release this August is the DC Comics movie Suicide Squad. Tracking numbers suggest that this could be the first August release to ever do $100,000,000+ at the box office in its opening weekend. The key piece of information in the last sentence isn’t that this high budget blockbuster movie is expected to do well. The key piece of information is that it could be the “first” August release to be a $100 million movie on opening weekend. August hasn’t historically been a good movie box office month. From 2011 to 2015, monthly box office sales averaged about $890 million a month. Over the same time frame, the August average box office was around $767 million, a below average month. It hasn’t typically been a month that is kind to blockbusters. In 2014, Disney struck gold with the August 1 release of the Marvel product, Guardians of the Galaxy with a total gross sales of over $333 million against a $170 million budget. The following year Twentieth Century Fox tried to copy Guardians’ success by releasing the reboot of the Marvel comic creation Fantastic Four. It bombed, taking in a little over $56 million in total box office against a $120 million budget. Suicide Squad may very well determine the future of the first weekend in August as a launching pad for blockbusters.
You can find “really like” movies in every month. August is no different. Here are my top “really like” movies released in August:
|Rear Window||$ 1,000,000|
|In the Heat of the Night||$ 2,000,000|
|Fugitive, The||$ 44,000,000|
|Searching for Bobby Fischer||Not available|
|Sixth Sense, The||$ 40,000,000|
While all of these movies are excellent movies, August hasn’t been a particularly good month for “really like” movies. There is only a 41.9% probability that a movie released in August will be a “really like” movie for me.
Of the top 100 movies on IMDB’s Top Rated Movies list, only 4 were released in August, and all 4 were released over 35 years ago. Since the year 2000, there have been 106 Best Picture nominees. Only 4 were released in August:
|The Help||$ 25,000,000|
|District 9||$ 30,000,000|
|Inglorious Basterds||$ 75,000,000|
The movies of quality released in August, prior to Guardians of the Galaxy, were typically low to modestly high budget movies. This makes sense when the month averages a below average box office.
Last year’s top August movies in terms of box office were:
|Gross (000000)||Budget (000000)|
|Straight Outta Compton||$161.20||$ 28.00|
|War Room||$67.80||$ 3.00|
|Fantastic Four||$56.10||$ 120.00|
|The Man from U.N.C.L.E.||$45.40||$ 75.00|
|The Gift||$43.80||$ 5.00|
The high budget movies bombed. The low budget movies succeeded.
You’ll need to come back on Thursday to see whether I think the Suicide Squad gamble will produce a “really like” movie. Beyond that I’ll be looking for modestly budgeted movies for my potential “really like” gems.